Nukes in Next Great War?

In their recent screed "NATO-based nuclear weapons are an advantage in a dangerous world" (Washington Post, 17 August, 2014) Brent Scowcroft, Stephen J. Hadley and Franklin Miller, talk about dangers which they think may soon confront NATO and NATO's military strategists. The three authors, national security junkies and ex-military strategists all, believe that the military advantages now enjoyed by NATO, vis-a-vis Russia, may disappear unless NATO continues to be backed by its currently well-stuffed arsenal of nuclear weapons.

They are very concerned about possible future reductions in the size of NATO's arsenal of nuclear weapons, and of a possible failure to continue with the modernization of these nuclear weapons systems. This concern is heightened by their firm belief that Russia is hard at work at modernizing its own nuclear weapons systems.

Such concerns may be keenest when felt by military strategists. And as I said, the authors warn about the disadvantage that NATO's military strategists may face if NATO's arsenal of nuclear weapons were to be reduced, and/or were not to be modernized.

Unsurprisingly, the authors are very unhappy with Pres. Obama's 5 April, 2009 Prague, Czech Republic speech, in which he called for an abolition of nuclear weapons. A push to abolish nuclear weapons would seem inconsistent with the authors' view, which I could summarize here as: in a world in which it is difficult to have faith in the peaceful intentions of one's neighbors, the only sound military strategy is to prepare for the worst.

Preparing for the worst, military strategists and their advocates must usually argue for more weapons, and for more destructive weapons systems.

But, if military strategizing by each of the world's militaries, accompanied by an increase in the size and destructiveness of all the world's military arsenals, were to continue unchecked, then the occurrence of the next great war would seem to be all but certain.

Somehow, disagreements between nations cannot be allowed to be distorted by rivalries between the world's militaries.

Recognition has been given to Von Clauswitz, a military theorist who said that war is the continuation of national policies by other means. But, in the future, it must be instead that disagreements between nations will not be the continuation of military rivalries, and will not be propelled by the concerns of competing military strategists.

Clearly, this will require exceptional leadership in the executive offices of today's rivalrous nations; e.g., leadership not cowed by the fears sown by military strategizers and their advocates.
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